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Explore the map to the rightbelow for information on Tsunami Zones, Snow Levels, Fault lines and more
South Island CDEM Conference Presentations

Delegates can find conference presentations via the following link. If you have not already been provided the password for this protected file, please contact your Conference Host or the team via our Contact Us page - For presentations click here

 

Emergency Survival Kits

Check out this comparison article of bought versus homemade survival kits which was recently shared by NZ Civil Defence.
Great way to find a survival kit that meets your needs. Click here to read the article.

 

This Sunday evening this will be tested Nationally.  If you have a mobile phone that is capable of receiving Emergency Mobile Alerts and you are in cell coverage reception in NZ your phone will receive a test message.  To find out more go to www.civildefence.govt.nz

Comment on Facebook

Yep that's me

Yolanda Attrill

Some more information about the Emergency Mobile Alerts that will be tested on the 26th of November.  What will it sound like on your phone? If you are looking for more information go to www.civildefence.govt.nz.
Get Ready for  Emergency Mobile Alerting.  Details below.

Comment on Facebook

When will the software be available for other phones and where do u download this from

John Lambeth Nigel Lambeth

2 weeks ago

Emergency Management Southland

Its been a crazy old week with weather but it looks like we might see some sun over the weekend. Get out and enjoy it.....WEEKEND WEATHER UNCERTAINTY?

What’s in store for the weekend’s weather for you? A subtropical low-pressure system moves south towards Te Ika-a-Māui (the North Island) and unfortunately, that means rain. Te Waipounamu (the South Island) is mostly spared, with a few showers about. Take a look at the forecast map to see the forecast for your area!

A low-pressure system, like this one, invariably has some uncertainty with it. The weather models we use are “initialised” and “run” every 12 hours. What this means is that every 12 hours (at 12pm and 12am), the model takes all available weather information from that time, using everything from satellite information to surface weather stations, and sets an initial “picture” of Earth’s atmosphere. It then carries out lengthy calculations to work out what the atmosphere should do next. These calculations are mathematically complicated, so as a result they can perfectly predict the future. Because of this, the position of meteorologically complex feature, such as a low, is never perfect.

While the weather models are extremely good in the first couple of days, their accuracy decreases with 5 days being a limit for very good accuracy, and 10 days the general maximum range for producing accurate forecasts. What this all means is that for the first couple of days, we can be accurate to the hour. Up to day five, we can talk about a general time of day and beyond this, average trends set the tone.

To improve long-range forecasting, and to help overcome the limitations of weather models, we make use of Ensemble Models. These ensemble models are made up of a weather model with multiple “runs”. That is, the model is run multiple times to account for a statistical variation of the “initial picture” of the atmosphere. This allows for a probability of outcomes looking forward into the future.

Check out the map below. It shows just four ensemble members (out of a total of 21 for this model, the other model we use for forecasting has 51!) for day 1 and day 15. You can see that for day 1, they mostly agree with a little variance. But notice how much this varies in 15 days!

Find out more about ensembles at our blog where there’s a great write up on these ensemble models! blog.metservice.com/EnsembleForecasting

And as always, stay up to date with the latest forecast! bit.ly/metservicenz

^Tui
... See MoreSee Less

Its been a crazy old week with weather but it looks like we might see some sun over the weekend. Get out and enjoy it.....
Photos from Rob Durling at Athol. Quite a bit of snow in the higher areas.

Comment on Facebook

Wouldn't want to be a lamb out there this morning.

AWSOME pics 😍

Kyla Cresswell

Cold Athol cold cold Athol 😅

Donna Tawhiti

Thats a gd dumping. Beautiful

+ View more comments

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Information provided directly assists emergency personnel and hastens our response efforts.

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South Island CDEM Conference Presentations

Delegates can find conference presentations via the following link. If you have not already been provided the password for this protected file, please contact your Conference Host or the team via our Contact Us page - For presentations click here

 

Emergency Survival Kits

Check out this comparison article of bought versus homemade survival kits which was recently shared by NZ Civil Defence.
Great way to find a survival kit that meets your needs. Click here to read the article.

 

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This Sunday evening this will be tested Nationally.  If you have a mobile phone that is capable of receiving Emergency Mobile Alerts and you are in cell coverage reception in NZ your phone will receive a test message.  To find out more go to www.civildefence.govt.nz

Comment on Facebook

Yep that's me

Yolanda Attrill

Some more information about the Emergency Mobile Alerts that will be tested on the 26th of November.  What will it sound like on your phone? If you are looking for more information go to www.civildefence.govt.nz.
Get Ready for  Emergency Mobile Alerting.  Details below.

Comment on Facebook

When will the software be available for other phones and where do u download this from

John Lambeth Nigel Lambeth

2 weeks ago

Emergency Management Southland

Its been a crazy old week with weather but it looks like we might see some sun over the weekend. Get out and enjoy it.....WEEKEND WEATHER UNCERTAINTY?

What’s in store for the weekend’s weather for you? A subtropical low-pressure system moves south towards Te Ika-a-Māui (the North Island) and unfortunately, that means rain. Te Waipounamu (the South Island) is mostly spared, with a few showers about. Take a look at the forecast map to see the forecast for your area!

A low-pressure system, like this one, invariably has some uncertainty with it. The weather models we use are “initialised” and “run” every 12 hours. What this means is that every 12 hours (at 12pm and 12am), the model takes all available weather information from that time, using everything from satellite information to surface weather stations, and sets an initial “picture” of Earth’s atmosphere. It then carries out lengthy calculations to work out what the atmosphere should do next. These calculations are mathematically complicated, so as a result they can perfectly predict the future. Because of this, the position of meteorologically complex feature, such as a low, is never perfect.

While the weather models are extremely good in the first couple of days, their accuracy decreases with 5 days being a limit for very good accuracy, and 10 days the general maximum range for producing accurate forecasts. What this all means is that for the first couple of days, we can be accurate to the hour. Up to day five, we can talk about a general time of day and beyond this, average trends set the tone.

To improve long-range forecasting, and to help overcome the limitations of weather models, we make use of Ensemble Models. These ensemble models are made up of a weather model with multiple “runs”. That is, the model is run multiple times to account for a statistical variation of the “initial picture” of the atmosphere. This allows for a probability of outcomes looking forward into the future.

Check out the map below. It shows just four ensemble members (out of a total of 21 for this model, the other model we use for forecasting has 51!) for day 1 and day 15. You can see that for day 1, they mostly agree with a little variance. But notice how much this varies in 15 days!

Find out more about ensembles at our blog where there’s a great write up on these ensemble models! blog.metservice.com/EnsembleForecasting

And as always, stay up to date with the latest forecast! bit.ly/metservicenz

^Tui
... See MoreSee Less

Its been a crazy old week with weather but it looks like we might see some sun over the weekend. Get out and enjoy it.....
Photos from Rob Durling at Athol. Quite a bit of snow in the higher areas.

Comment on Facebook

Wouldn't want to be a lamb out there this morning.

AWSOME pics 😍

Kyla Cresswell

Cold Athol cold cold Athol 😅

Donna Tawhiti

Thats a gd dumping. Beautiful

+ View more comments